According to Zillow's predictions, the situation may improve next year.
Firstly, as people gradually accept the new normal of high mortgage rates, homebuyers and sellers may lose patience with waiting for rates to drop, leading to increased listings as more homes are put on the market. This suggests that homeowners who were unwilling to sell in the past two years might, under the pressure of reality, decide to list their properties, ultimately increasing housing supply.
Secondly, as of October this year, a typical homebuyer was allocating over 40% of their income to monthly mortgage payments, reaching a historic high.
While home prices may not decrease, the rate of price growth is expected to stabilize, providing Americans with some time to catch up with rising home prices. Homebuying costs are likely to stabilize, and if mortgage rates decrease, homebuying costs may also follow suit. This will offer homebuyers more choices and opportunities.
Thirdly, as families look for more affordable options and shy away from buying high-priced homes, demand for single-family home rentals may increase next year. Homeowners may also decide to turn their homes into investment properties for rent instead of selling. Many existing homeowners with ultra-low mortgage rates may be reluctant to sell, contributing to an increase in rental inventory for single-family homes.
Fourthly, demand for rentals in city centers may increase, while demand for areas farther from the city may decrease. Recent trends in cities like New York show a significant increase in demand for rentals in areas with convenient transportation to downtown and midtown. With the rise of the multifamily housing construction boom this year, it implies that a large number of new homes will enter the market, providing renters near city centers with more choices.
Fifthly, as housing inventory remains relatively low, potential homebuyers may overlook minor flaws in properties. Competition from speculators may decrease. While the cost of buying homes is increasing, the difficulty of renovations is also growing. Therefore, homebuyers may face less competition from renovators compared to previous years. However, even as the opportunities for bidding wars decrease, the prices of these homes are unlikely to become cheaper.
Finally, the development of artificial intelligence will help simplify the homebuying and selling experience, such as assisting in writing property descriptions through large language models. This new tool will help real estate agents connect with more clients, and large language models like ChatGPT are already assisting in writing property listings. Additionally, artificial intelligence is expected to continue strengthening the creation of visual content, such as 3D images, in the near future, providing more services to the real estate market.
It is important to note that these predictions are based on current market trends and data analysis and do not guarantee future occurrences. The real estate market is influenced by various factors, including economic conditions, policy changes, and others, leading to uncertainties. However, these predictions provide some reference and insights for the future market development and offer guidance to homebuyers and sellers. In 2024, as the market undergoes changes and adjustments, a more stable and healthy real estate market can be expected.