This downward trend is welcome after rates soared to a 22-year high of 7.23 per cent a fortnight ago. Nonetheless, these rates are still high, more than double what they were two years ago, when rates were below 3%, which brought the U.S. housing market to a virtual standstill.
As the market waits for mortgage rates to stabilise or fall, the housing market has been moving slowly for more than a year," said Realtor.com® Data Scientist Sabrina Speianu in her analysis. Heading into the fall home buying season, mortgage rates, home prices and housing availability continue to be challenges for home buyers and sellers who may need to purchase a home while selling their current home."
As the autumn homebuying season unfolds on shaky ground, we will explain in our latest edition of "How's the Housing Market This Week?" explaining what the latest real estate statistics mean for buyers and sellers.
What's next for mortgage rates?
The Federal Reserve will meet on 19 and 20 September to discuss whether to raise its benchmark interest rate, and many are trying to read the economic tea leaves and predict whether mortgage rates will rise or fall with it.
All eyes are on macroeconomic indicators, such as the strength of the job market and the rate of inflation, which will guide the Fed in charting a path forward for interest rates, Speianu said.
With a strong but cooling job market and slowing inflation, "the market does not expect the Fed to raise rates in September, and there is less likelihood of a rate hike before the end of the year," Speianu predicted.
With the potential for rate hikes over, the housing market may just be starting to move forward.
Until mortgage rates fall, the supply of homes for sale will remain low.
In the week ending Sept. 2, the number of new listings was down 8.5 percent from a year ago.
While there was an increase in the number of new listings from July to August, it was to be expected that the number of new listings began to decline again as we entered September, Spianu said.
Fewer and fewer sellers are locking sellers into their homes and turning buyers away as many sellers have lower mortgage rates they are unwilling to give up. As a result, overall inventory (both new and existing homes) has also declined, down 5.2 per cent from a year ago.
At the same time, new construction is providing buyers with another option, and new home sales continue to climb from year-ago lows, Speianu added.
As if high mortgage rates weren't enough of a deterrent for would-be homebuyers, low inventory is driving up prices.
After welcome annual price declines in June and July, the median list price rose year-over-year in August, hovering at $435,000.
For the week ending 2 September, median home prices were up 0.2% compared to the same week last year. But the good news is that prices didn't break the record high of $449,000 set last June.
The bad news? Home prices are unlikely to drop significantly anytime soon.
Speianu adds, "The inventory of existing homes is tightening again compared to last year as homebuyers find fewer opportunities, which is still supporting list prices.
Why the slowing pace of home sales may soon accelerate.
Any seller who can get out from under mortgage rates is likely to be rewarded with a quick home sale.
The pace of home sales has slowed for 59 consecutive weeks, but that trend could soon turn around.
"Compared to the same time last year, the gap is now only two days longer," Speianu said." While demand for homes has fallen off due to affordability constraints, there are still eager homebuyers in the market browsing the dwindling inventory of homes for sale."